Quick facts by PokerStrategy
- A poker upswing is a streak of results that goes beyond a player’s normal win rate.
- Upswings in poker occur due to variance.
- They are temporary, so use them to build confidence rather than assuming you can’t lose.
- The best approach is to stay grounded and keep playing your A-game.
What Is an Upswing in Poker?
An upswing in poker is when you are experiencing a run of good results. Statistically, your winnings exceed what you’d normally expect based on your win rate.
The term “upswing” in poker originates from financial and business language, where it is used to describe a positive upward trend in sales or performance. This concept was adopted by the poker community, along with its opposite term, downswing, to refer to the natural peaks and troughs that come from the variance in poker.
The upswing poker meaning refers to a sustained winning period that appears as an upward trend on the player’s results graph.
Characteristics of an Upswing
An upswing is characterised by a run of positive variance and often feels like everything is going your way.
Common signs include:
- Being dealt strong hands and getting paid off.
- Winning all-ins even when you are behind.
- Having your bluffs succeed consistently.
- Losing only small pots while winning the big ones.
- Running deep and scoring big in consecutive tournaments.
Whatever the characteristics of your poker upswing, there’s one common feature: you’ll be winning at an unusually high rate.
Statistical Variance and Upswings
Upswings in poker happen because of statistical variance – the natural swings away from your expected win rate. In simple terms, there are lots of ups and downs in poker. Even winning players don’t make steady profits. Instead, results come in streaks – sometimes small shifts, other times big swings, depending on the format.
Whether you play live or at online poker sites, an upswing is one of those streaks where positive variance pushes your results above your usual win rate.
Distinguishing Skill from Luck in an Upswing
For recreational players, an upswing is usually driven by luck. You may have played well, but you’ve also landed on the favourable side of variance and experienced a positive deviation from your break-even or losing rate. That’s awesome: enjoy your win, and keep learning.
For serious and pro poker players, upswings can also represent the payoff from a long grind. Many losing sessions and small, hopeless wins contributed to the results before the upswing even occurred. In this case, the upswing is simply the payday for the skill invested along the way.
Psychological Impact of an Upswing
Whether you’re playing tournaments or cash games, an upswing is an awesome moment in poker. It’s one of the reasons why any serious player endures the pain and suffering of variance. When an upswing is happening, it means you are getting great results.
Enjoy your upswings, breathe in your well-earned victory, but don’t let it get to your head. Remember, an upswing is a statistical deviation from your typical win rate. It’s part chance.
Playing Differently During an Upswing
The big trap that you could fall into during a poker upswing is becoming overconfident. This can lead to numerous problems. At best, you’ll fail to properly analyze each spot because of the false belief that you’ll win regardless. At worst, you’ll start to play poor hands and bad spots.
If it was part skill and part chance that brought about your upswing in the first place, don’t make the fatal mistake of removing that skill element. Your poker strategy during an upswing should be exactly the same as usual.
Risking Behaviour and Stakes
Another key consideration here is the psychology of winning, which can lead to risky behavior, particularly when it comes to increasing stakes.
There’s no guaranteed amount of time or number of games that a poker upswing will last, so moving up in stakes is typically a risky move that could cost your winnings and weaken your bankroll. Only move up in stakes after an upswing if your bankroll allows it.
Upswings in Tournament vs Cash Games
Upswings and downswings can be extreme in tournament poker because the MTT format has a huge amount of variance. To win an MTT, you’ll need to slay through a massive field of players and, due to the top-heavy pay structure, make it to the top few spots to win a huge prize.
Even if you are a winning player with a proven ROI, you won’t win tournaments very often, so any major tournament victory is going to look and feel like an uptick on your record. Winning two or three in a row would constitute a major upswing.
Cash games have way less variance. It’s still there, but not in the same way it does in tournaments. It’s unlikely, although still possible, that a player with a decent win rate in cash games would go on a poker upswing or downswing of more than a couple of dozen buy-ins. An upswing in cash games usually involves winning several valuable pots or experiencing multiple consecutive winning sessions.
How to Maximize Value During an Upswing
Whether you’re a new player who has just won their first MTT or a cash game player who has finally had the upswing they need to move up in stakes, your primary focus should be to continue to maximize value during an upswing.
Now is not the time to start slacking off and making mistakes. Focus on the quality of your decision-making while at the tables. And spend time off the table reviewing sessions and working on improvements to your game.
Your entire upswing in poker strategy should be based on maintaining your win rate while enjoying the extra boost that the positive variance brings.
Tips for Staying Grounded in an Upswing
Going on an upswing is great for any player. The only risk is that you become ungrounded and start to approach the game in negative ways. Here are some tips to stay grounded during an upswing in poker:
- Focus on Decisions: Results are great, but you can only control the quality of your decisions and strategy during an upswing or downswing.
- Avoid Changing Play: Never change your style just because you are winning. Any strategic changes during an upswing should be based on knowledge and hand reviews.
- Review Hands: Review your sessions and analyze your hand histories so that you can ensure you are still playing your A-game during an upswing.
- Bankroll Management: Stick to your usual bankroll management strategy during an upswing and only move up in stakes if you have the skill and bankroll to do so.
FAQs
How long can a poker upswing last?
There’s no set length for a poker upswing. Theoretically, it could go on forever, although the chances of it continuing get slimmer with volume.
How should I adjust my play during an upswing?
You should not adjust your poker strategy during an upswing based purely on results. This can weaken your play and damage your win rate.
What is the difference between an upswing and running hot?
An upswing in poker is similar to running hot, and the two can be used interchangeably. However, an upswing implies a prolonged period of results, whereas running hot can mean a very quick burst of luck.
Is an upswing just luck?
A poker upswing can just be down to luck, although it is often a combination of skill applied across a large volume of games, combined with variance.
Can an upswing hide mistakes in my game?
A poker upswing can hide mistakes in your play, especially if your winning results are purely coming from a spell of positive variance. Review your sessions and continue focusing on playing your A-game during an upswing.