Quick facts by PokerStrategy
- Poker variance is the statistical irregularity of outcome inherent in any span of time.
- Even a good-quality player will lose in the short term due to variance.
- Bankroll management is how you endure variance.
- Such tools as a poker variance calculator can assist in simulating probable swings.
What is Variance in Poker?
Variance refers to the statistical deviation of one’s long-term expected results in poker. However, there can be huge deviations of short-term results as a function of chance and the dealing of the cards, together with the opponent’s action. That is, variance is the mathematical principle of why one can be a worse player getting lucky in one hand or session, but a long-term loser.
Poker expected value determines how much a hand is expected to yield or lose in the long run. Poker variance accounts for the deviation of actual results in small intervals of time from this expectation.
Poker variance is vital information, both for new players attempting to understand their win/loss record and professional players who want some insight into this record.
How Variance Affects Poker Result and Player Behaviour
Variance will create upward or downward patterns with no immediate relation to your playing. You can lose 10 buy-ins in one week playing fine at each of your decision points. In some cases, a weak player can sometimes succeed simply due to luck.
This variability means that results in poker are not always a direct reflection of skill in the short term. It can occur with long upswings just as it can with long dry periods.
Confidence, risk tolerance, and an aptitude for sticking with correct strategies suffer accordingly. Large variance, particularly in tournaments, can create long spells of going dry with spells in between cashes, even among top players.
Variance both impacts results and players’ perceptions of the game. It can impact bankroll control and resistance to tilt, as well as style. Players will, at times, go too tight in a downswing and lose good profit opportunities at the table. On the other hand, players can, at times, go wild in an upswing and confuse luck with skill.
Because poker is an imperfect table game of chance, everything is unpredictable. You have no say in what will be dealt with next, but only in how you will react. Mathematically, unpredictability is known as variance, and this is only one of many reasons poker is as much a game of skill as it is of chance.
Variance Levels by Poker Game Type
Variance varies across different poker formats. Many of these formats are available at prominent poker sites, making it important for players to understand the variance before jumping in. Here is how variance usually compares across the most common game types:
| Poker Format | Variance Level | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| No-Limit Hold’em Cash Games | No-Limit Hold’em Cash Games Medium | Lower variance due to deeper stacks and more control. |
| Multi-Table Tournaments (MTTs) | High | One player wins most of the prize pool; long stretches between wins. |
| Sit & Go Tournaments (SNGs) | Medium-High | High ROI possible, but frequent bustouts. |
| Pot-Limit Omaha (PLO) | Very High | More draws and equity swings per hand. |
| Limit Hold’em | Low-Medium | Smaller bet sizes lead to smaller swings. |
Large implied-odds events with shallow stacks (i.e., turbo events) create variance. Games with longer stacks with greater post-flop action (i.e., cash events) have greater potential to exhibit skill, thus decreasing variance.
Managing Variance Using Bankroll Strategy
Proper bankroll management is one of the best ways to endure poker variance. The higher the game’s variance, the bigger the bankroll you will need in order to ride out the downswings without going bust.
General Bankroll Guidelines
- Cash Games: 20–50 buy-ins
- MTTs: 100–300 buy-ins
- SNGs: 50–100 buy-ins
- PLO Cash Games: 50+ buy-ins
For high-variance formats such as MTTs or PLO, players need to be even more conservative. A 20+ buy-in downswing overnight is not unheard of in these formats.
7 Reasons for Variance in Poker
There are several core reasons why variance exists in poker:
- Card Distribution: Randomness in the cards you and your opponents are dealt.
- Showdown Outcomes: Getting your money in good, but still losing due to runouts.
- Opponents’ Skill Levels: Poor opponents can play erratically, leading to unpredictable results.
- Multi-way Pots: The more players, the greater the uncertainty of results.
- Tournament Structure: Rapid blind levels or winner-take-all structures raise variance.
- Aggressive Play Style: Loose and aggressive play creates more big pots, thus more swings.
- Bad Beats & Coolers: Unavoidable situations where good hands are beaten by better ones.
Variance Examples
Here are a few variance in poker examples that illustrate how results can diverge from expectations.
Example 1: Aces Cracked
You have pocket Aces pre-flop and get it all-in against pocket Kings. You are an 81% favorite, but the board comes out with a King, and you lose. This is variance in action.
Example 2: Tournament Bubble
You go all-in A-K suited on the bubble and lose to 8-8. Even though your play was correct, variance sends you home empty-handed.
Example 3: Winning Streak
A new player wins three small tournaments in a row, despite making strategic errors. Positive variance rewards bad play in the short term.
Tracking Variance and Understanding the Long Run
Software such as a poker variance calculator or poker tracking software, like PokerTracker or Hold’em Manager, enables players to see their long-term performance. Such programs help quantify expected win rates, as well as measure actual achievements against anticipated value (EV).
Key Metrics
- BB/100: Big blinds won per 100 hands, cash game standard.
- EV Adjusted Winnings: Displays what a player ought to have won from all-in situations.
- Standard Deviation: A measurement of how far your results will fluctuate around your win rate.
With this information and a strong understanding of the variance in poker meaning, players can identify if a downswing is the result of poor play or natural variance.
Across a sufficiently large sample size, variance evens out, and outcomes start to mirror true skill. This is why poker is described as a “long-term” game. The “long run,” however, can take the form of tens or even hundreds of thousands of hands, depending on the format.
Tournament players can go months without a big score even when they’re playing perfectly. Cash game players, however, tend to require fewer hands to realize their actual win rate, courtesy of more stable expected value per session.
Patience and discipline are the keys to understanding how variance works in poker and surviving it properly. Taking short-term pain as part of the game is one of the characteristics of top players.
Common Myths Regarding Variance
- “Variance is simply bad luck.”
False. Variance is inherent in any probabilistic game and occurs even when you’re making optimal choices. - “I’m due to win.”
False. Poker is not played on a principle of fairness. Each hand is separate from the previous one. - “Variance only hurts bad players.”
Incorrect. Solid players tend to experience larger downswings since they play high-volume or high-variance games. - “Variance is rigged online.”
A common conspiracy myth. Legit online poker rooms are subject to strict regulation and RNG audits.
Demystifying these myths is important for an objective understanding of poker variance. Learning about variance is not a choice; it’s a necessity. Players who manage it in a positive manner are the most likely to be successful in the long term.
Frequently Asked Questions
How to overcome variance?
The key to overcoming a variance starts with volume, followed by sound decision-making, and bankroll preservation. It’s okay, in the short term, to lose; audit your play constantly in order to make sure you’re not making errors with variance.
What is a normal downswing duration?
A downswing may be as brief as only one or two sessions or as long as several months, contingent on volume, tournament structure, and volatility rate.
Is the variance greater in online poker?
Variance is not necessarily higher on the net, but one does enjoy faster play on the net with better hands, vs. tougher competition, and potential skewing of a variance perception.
How to minimize variance in poker?
Play tight, don’t act on marginal poker hands, play low-variance poker (full-ring cash games), and handle your tilt appropriately. However, keep in mind that variance can never be completely removed.